Catalysts & Headlines (CET)

⚡
ECB guidance keeps rates in control
The press conference can extend the rise in yields and pressure rate-sensitive DAX sectors.
14:45
Volatility challenges DAX resilience
VIX near 19 and weak European breadth leave the DAX advance vulnerable below the 24,950 Pivot.
15:16
Iran headlines keep oil risk binary
Brent's sharp fall eases inflation pressure, but renewed escalation could reverse the move quickly.
15:16
SAP earnings concentrate index risk
Earnings sensitivity in a heavyweight technology name can amplify moves around R1 and S1.
15:16

Economic Calendar (CET)

📅
14:15EUECB Main Refinancing RateHigh
14:15EUECB Monetary Policy StatementHigh
14:30USInitial Jobless ClaimsMed
14:45EUECB Press ConferenceHigh

Key Levels — DAX

📐
LevelPriceType
R325310Resistance
R225190Resistance
R125070Resistance
POC25010POC
Pivot24950Pivot
S124830Support
S224700Support
S324580Support

Overnight Session

🌙
DAX Pre-Market
24935
633
EURO STOXX 50
6220
-97
VIX
18.96
2.32
10Y Yield
4.707
0.050
EUR-USD
1.1373
-0.0031
Brent
86.83
-7.24

Market Context

📊
Overall DAX risk appetite, estimated from price action and breadth. Colour = the read: green = risk-on/bullish, amber = mixed, red = risk-off/bearish. Bar = how pronounced the reading is.
DAX Sentiment
Positive, but isolated
Index options put/call balance. Heavy puts = hedging/fear; light puts = complacency. Colour: green = light hedging (constructive), amber = balanced, red = heavy protection (defensive). Bar = strength of the signal.
Put-Call
Balanced, hedges building
Shape of the VIX futures curve (VIX9D vs 30-day VIX), computed from live data. Contango (front below spot) = calm; flat or inverted = near-term fear. Colour: green = calm contango, amber = flat, red = inverted/stress. Bar = stress level.
VIX Term Structure
Contango, calm
European equity volatility read (VSTOXX-style; proxied from VIX and price action, since live VSTOXX is unavailable). Colour: green = calm/risk-on (supportive for DAX), amber = mid, red = elevated stress. Bar = strength of the signal.
Euro Vol
Elevated event premium
DAX-40 participation - how broad it is. Colour: green = broad/strong, amber = mixed, red = narrow/weak. Bar = strength of the signal.
Breadth
Narrow, weak internals

Session Playbook

🎯
Bull Case
OrderBuy Stop
Entry25062-25078
Stop24970
TP125190
TP225310
Only a clean R1 breakout restores control; R2 offers the first balanced target, with R3 reserved for follow-through.
Bear Case
OrderSell Limit
Entry25062-25078
Stop25170
TP124950
TP224830
Fade a weak R1 retest while VIX stays firm; R2 defines risk and S1-S2 map the unwind.
TradingView
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