Catalysts & Headlines (CET)

⚡
US CPI repricing
The inflation print keeps yields, EUR/USD and S&P 500 futures in control of the DAX risk tone into the afternoon.
14:30
Middle East risk premium hits oil
Hormuz threats have pushed crude higher, pressuring European cyclicals and keeping DAX rebounds vulnerable.
15:16
Fed testimony risk
Chairman Warsh can swing rate-cut expectations, with NQ and the 10Y likely to set the next DAX impulse.
16:00
German autos headline risk
Volkswagen cost-cut headlines keep autos volatile and make weak DAX rebounds easier to fade.
15:16

Economic Calendar (CET)

📅
10:45GBBOE Gov Bailey SpeaksMed
14:30USCore CPI m/mHigh
14:30USCore CPI y/yHigh
14:30USCPI m/mHigh
14:30USCPI y/yHigh
16:00USFed Chairman Warsh TestifiesHigh
22:00GBBOE Gov Bailey SpeaksHigh

Key Levels — DAX

📐
LevelPriceType
R325538Resistance
R225375Resistance
R125304Resistance
Pivot25142Pivot
S125071Support
POC25038POC
S224908Support
S324838Support

Overnight Session

🌙
DAX Pre-Market
25101
-133
EURO STOXX 50
6249
-22
VIX
16.77
-0.39
10Y Yield
4.573
-0.036
EUR-USD
1.1450
0.0046
Brent
86.80
3.50

Market Context

📊
Overall DAX risk appetite, estimated from price action and breadth. Colour = the read: green = risk-on/bullish, amber = mixed, red = risk-off/bearish. Bar = how pronounced the reading is.
DAX Sentiment
Sellers pressing lows
Index options put/call balance. Heavy puts = hedging/fear; light puts = complacency. Colour: green = light hedging (constructive), amber = balanced, red = heavy protection (defensive). Bar = strength of the signal.
Put-Call
Balanced hedging demand
Shape of the VIX futures curve (VIX9D vs 30-day VIX), computed from live data. Contango (front below spot) = calm; flat or inverted = near-term fear. Colour: green = calm contango, amber = flat, red = inverted/stress. Bar = stress level.
VIX Term Structure
Flat carry
European equity volatility read (VSTOXX-style; proxied from VIX and price action, since live VSTOXX is unavailable). Colour: green = calm/risk-on (supportive for DAX), amber = mid, red = elevated stress. Bar = strength of the signal.
Euro Vol
Contained but twitchy
DAX-40 participation - how broad it is. Colour: green = broad/strong, amber = mixed, red = narrow/weak. Bar = strength of the signal.
Breadth
Narrow weak internals

Session Playbook

🎯
Bull Case
OrderBuy Limit
Entry25060-25082
Stop24971
TP125191
TP225311
Only a disciplined dip into S1 is worth buying; R1 must pay quickly or oil risk keeps sellers active.
Bear Case
OrderSell Limit
Entry25292-25316
Stop25404
TP125184
TP225064
Fade a squeeze into R1; R2 is the invalidation, with S1 and S2 offering the clean reward path.
TradingView
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