Catalysts & Headlines (CET)

⚡
Brent spike keeps inflation risk alive
Hormuz disruption risk is lifting oil and can cap DAX cyclicals if 10Y yields stay firm.
15:16
DAX absorbs chip weakness
Chip names remain a drag, but trade above the 25,151 Pivot keeps squeeze risk pointed at 25,418.
15:16
Calm VIX supports risk appetite
Volatility holding in the mid-teens reduces forced hedging and favors dip buyers above the Pivot.
15:16

Economic Calendar (CET)

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Key Levels — DAX

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LevelPriceType
R325529Resistance
R225418Resistance
R125265Resistance
POC25228POC
Pivot25151Pivot
S125074Support
S224960Support
S324846Support

Overnight Session

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DAX Pre-Market
25236
122
EURO STOXX 50
6275
5
VIX
16.35
-0.55
10Y Yield
4.577
0.008
EUR-USD
1.1430
-0.0003
Brent
78.77
2.76

Market Context

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Overall DAX risk appetite, estimated from price action and breadth. Colour = the read: green = risk-on/bullish, amber = mixed, red = risk-off/bearish. Bar = how pronounced the reading is.
DAX Sentiment
Constructive, headline wary
Index options put/call balance. Heavy puts = hedging/fear; light puts = complacency. Colour: green = light hedging (constructive), amber = balanced, red = heavy protection (defensive). Bar = strength of the signal.
Put-Call
Balanced hedging demand
Shape of the VIX futures curve (VIX9D vs 30-day VIX), computed from live data. Contango (front below spot) = calm; flat or inverted = near-term fear. Colour: green = calm contango, amber = flat, red = inverted/stress. Bar = stress level.
VIX Term Structure
Contango, calm
European equity volatility read (VSTOXX-style; proxied from VIX and price action, since live VSTOXX is unavailable). Colour: green = calm/risk-on (supportive for DAX), amber = mid, red = elevated stress. Bar = strength of the signal.
Euro Vol
Contained but twitchy
DAX-40 participation - how broad it is. Colour: green = broad/strong, amber = mixed, red = narrow/weak. Bar = strength of the signal.
Breadth
Mixed narrow leadership

Session Playbook

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Bull Case
OrderBuy Stop
Entry25253-25277
Stop25164
TP125386
TP225507
Momentum trigger above R1; acceptance there forces short-covering toward R2, with R3 the measured extension.
Bear Case
OrderSell Stop
Entry25139-25163
Stop25252
TP125030
TP224909
Pivot failure flips the session from squeeze to liquidation; targets skip to S2 because nearer support offers poor reward.
TradingView
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