Catalysts & Headlines (CET)

⚡
Cash open tests R1 supply
Acceptance above 25,261 opens 25,313; rejection puts the Pivot back under pressure.
09:00
ECB rate-cut pushback
Firmer yield expectations can cap rate-sensitive DAX sectors, with banks providing only a partial offset.
08:46
Autos and China headlines
Trade-friction and demand concerns leave German autos vulnerable on rallies.
08:46
S&P 500 futures risk handoff
A weaker S&P 500 futures tone would expose the DAX Pivot, while firm leadership helps a squeeze through R1.
15:30

Economic Calendar (CET)

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Key Levels — DAX

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LevelPriceType
R325410Resistance
R225313Resistance
R125261Resistance
POC25226POC
Pivot25158Pivot
S125051Support
S224986Support
S324897Support

Overnight Session

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DAX Pre-Market
25239
26
EURO STOXX 50
6284
79
VIX
15.84
-1.06
10Y Yield
4.539
-0.030
EUR-USD
1.1443
0.0021
Brent
76.26
-0.04

Market Context

📊
Overall DAX risk appetite, estimated from price action and breadth. Colour = the read: green = risk-on/bullish, amber = mixed, red = risk-off/bearish. Bar = how pronounced the reading is.
DAX Sentiment
Bid but capped
Index options put/call balance. Heavy puts = hedging/fear; light puts = complacency. Colour: green = light hedging (constructive), amber = balanced, red = heavy protection (defensive). Bar = strength of the signal.
Put-Call
Balanced no panic
Shape of the VIX futures curve (VIX9D vs 30-day VIX), computed from live data. Contango (front below spot) = calm; flat or inverted = near-term fear. Colour: green = calm contango, amber = flat, red = inverted/stress. Bar = stress level.
VIX Term Structure
Contango, calm
European equity volatility read (VSTOXX-style; proxied from VIX and price action, since live VSTOXX is unavailable). Colour: green = calm/risk-on (supportive for DAX), amber = mid, red = elevated stress. Bar = strength of the signal.
Euro Vol
Contained but twitchy
DAX-40 participation - how broad it is. Colour: green = broad/strong, amber = mixed, red = narrow/weak. Bar = strength of the signal.
Breadth
Improving but selective

Session Playbook

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Bull Case
OrderBuy Limit
Entry25148-25168
Stop25057
TP125279
TP225400
Buy the controlled dip into Pivot only if sellers fail to press; structure offers clean risk into 25313 and 25410.
Bear Case
OrderSell Stop
Entry25148-25168
Stop25259
TP125037
TP224916
A Pivot break turns chop into liquidation; POC recovery invalidates, while 25051 and 24986 become the downside magnets.
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