Catalysts & Headlines (CET)

⚡
Opening auction tests the gap
A stretched open near 25936 leaves little margin for late buyers if the first rotation rejects R1.
09:00
ECB communication risk
Rate-cut expectations remain sensitive after firm core inflation and a more cautious ECB debate.
10:00
Bank of England policy tone
Sterling and rates can move if the Bank of England pushes back against easing expectations.
17:00

Economic Calendar (CET)

📅
10:00EUECB President Lagarde SpeaksMed
17:00GBBOE Gov Bailey SpeaksMed

Key Levels — DAX

📐
LevelPriceType
R326250Resistance
R226110Resistance
R125936Resistance
POC25810POC
Pivot25707Pivot
S125353Support
S225161Support
S325096Support

Overnight Session

🌙
DAX Pre-Market
25861
974
EURO STOXX 50
6360
78
VIX
16.15
-0.44
10Y Yield
4.485
0.010
EUR-USD
1.1463
0.0085
Brent
72.19
0.62

Market Context

📊
Overall DAX risk appetite, estimated from price action and breadth. Colour = the read: green = risk-on/bullish, amber = mixed, red = risk-off/bearish. Bar = how pronounced the reading is.
DAX Sentiment
Stretched, buyers chasing
Index options put/call balance. Heavy puts = hedging/fear; light puts = complacency. Colour: green = light hedging (constructive), amber = balanced, red = heavy protection (defensive). Bar = strength of the signal.
Put-Call
Balanced but complacent
Shape of the VIX futures curve (VIX9D vs 30-day VIX), computed from live data. Contango (front below spot) = calm; flat or inverted = near-term fear. Colour: green = calm contango, amber = flat, red = inverted/stress. Bar = stress level.
VIX Term Structure
Contango, calm
European equity volatility read (VSTOXX-style; proxied from VIX and price action, since live VSTOXX is unavailable). Colour: green = calm/risk-on (supportive for DAX), amber = mid, red = elevated stress. Bar = strength of the signal.
Euro Vol
Contained, headline sensitive
DAX-40 participation - how broad it is. Colour: green = broad/strong, amber = mixed, red = narrow/weak. Bar = strength of the signal.
Breadth
Positive, quality mixed

Session Playbook

🎯
Bull Case
OrderBuy Limit
Entry25845-25861
Stop25750
TP125977
TP226100
Breakout only if buyers clear R1; calm VIX can fuel stops, but entry sits above the opening noise.
Bear Case
OrderSell Stop
Entry25695-25719
Stop25810
TP125583
TP225460
A loss of Pivot turns the gap into trapped longs; POC becomes the invalidation line.
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