Catalysts & Headlines (CET)

⚡
DAX resistance cluster
The first test of 25204 to 25242 decides whether pre-market strength turns into acceptance or a fade.
09:00
European rates relief
Softer inflation pressure supports rate-sensitive names, but weaker broader Euro equity tone keeps the bid selective.
09:00
US labour-market data
Payrolls, unemployment and earnings can reset rate expectations and dominate the afternoon risk tone.
14:30
Oil and geopolitics
Lower Brent eases margin pressure for industrials, while geopolitical headline risk can still cap risk appetite.
08:46

Economic Calendar (CET)

📅
08:30CHCPI m/mMed
14:30USAverage Hourly Earnings m/mHigh
14:30USNon-Farm Employment ChangeHigh
14:30USUnemployment RateHigh
14:30USUnemployment ClaimsMed

Key Levels — DAX

📐
LevelPriceType
R325353Resistance
R225242Resistance
R125204Resistance
POC25164POC
Pivot25111Pivot
S125028Support
S224838Support
S324712Support

Overnight Session

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DAX Pre-Market
25180
303
EURO STOXX 50
6283
-46
VIX
16.59
0.14
10Y Yield
4.475
0.057
EUR-USD
1.1395
-0.0018
Brent
70.78
-0.79

Market Context

📊
Overall DAX risk appetite, estimated from price action and breadth. Colour = the read: green = risk-on/bullish, amber = mixed, red = risk-off/bearish. Bar = how pronounced the reading is.
DAX Sentiment
Firm but stretched
Index options put/call balance. Heavy puts = hedging/fear; light puts = complacency. Colour: green = light hedging (constructive), amber = balanced, red = heavy protection (defensive). Bar = strength of the signal.
Put-Call
Balanced hedging demand
Shape of the VIX futures curve (VIX9D vs 30-day VIX), computed from live data. Contango (front below spot) = calm; flat or inverted = near-term fear. Colour: green = calm contango, amber = flat, red = inverted/stress. Bar = stress level.
VIX Term Structure
Contango, calm
European equity volatility read (VSTOXX-style; proxied from VIX and price action, since live VSTOXX is unavailable). Colour: green = calm/risk-on (supportive for DAX), amber = mid, red = elevated stress. Bar = strength of the signal.
Euro Vol
Contained but watchful
DAX-40 participation - how broad it is. Colour: green = broad/strong, amber = mixed, red = narrow/weak. Bar = strength of the signal.
Breadth
Narrow, DAX led

Session Playbook

🎯
Bull Case
OrderBuy Limit
Entry25099-25123
Stop25010
TP125232
TP225353
Only buy a flush into Pivot if buyers defend it; TP1 is deliberately tight because the upper band is crowded.
Bear Case
OrderSell Stop
Entry25100-25122
Stop25212
TP124990
TP224869
A failed Pivot opens air toward S2, especially if broader Europe stays soft and US jobs lift yields.
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