Catalysts & Headlines (CET)
FOMC member Waller speaks
Any pushback against easing expectations can lift yields and pressure equities into the US session.
13:30
US labor market and consumption data (NFP, unemployment, earnings, retail sales)
A hot print risks higher yields and further equity downside; a soft print can trigger a relief rally but may be choppy with elevated vol.
14:30
Economic Calendar (CET)
13:30🇺🇸 FOMC Member Waller SpeaksMed
14:30🇺🇸 Average Hourly Earnings m/mHigh
14:30🇺🇸 Core Retail Sales m/mHigh
14:30🇺🇸 Non-Farm Employment ChangeHigh
14:30🇺🇸 Retail Sales m/mHigh
14:30🇺🇸 Unemployment RateHigh
Key Levels — DAX
| Level | Price | Type |
|---|---|---|
| R3 | 24028 | Resistance |
| R2 | 23816 | Resistance |
| R1 | 23620 | Resistance |
| POC | 23515 | POC |
| Pivot | 23629 | Pivot |
| S1 | 23343 | Support |
| S2 | 23200 | Support |
| S3 | 23000 | Support |
Overnight Session
DAX Pre-Market
23515
-301
EURO STOXX 50
5701
-82
VIX
26.80
3.05
10Y Yield
4.171
0.025
EUR-USD
1.1579
-0.0056
Brent
91.08
5.67
Market Context
Composite sentiment from institutional positioning, options flow, and retail surveys.
DAX Sentiment28
Put/Call Ratio — above 1.0 = hedging/fear; below 0.7 = complacency.
Put-Call67
Front-month vs back-month VIX spread. Contango = calm. Backwardation = stress.
VIX Term Structure34
Euro currency implied volatility. Rising = ECB uncertainty or macro stress.
Euro Vol62
% of DAX 40 constituents above 20-day MA. High = broad trend. Low = rotation risk.
Breadth30
Session Playbook
Bull Case
| Order | Buy Stop |
| Entry | 23630-23660 |
| Stop | 23510 |
| TP1 | 23816 |
| TP2 | 24028 |
Fade the selloff only on a pivot reclaim; targets are prior close and day high with volatility elevated.
Bear Case
| Order | Sell Stop |
| Entry | 23340-23320 |
| Stop | 23460 |
| TP1 | 23200 |
| TP2 | 23000 |
Breakdown below the session low can extend liquidation; elevated VIX and higher yields favor downside continuation.
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